Belgrade surprised by ICJ decision

23/07/2010

Tumultuous changes in Serbian politics and in the region may be in the making.

By Igor Jovanovic for Southeast European Times in Belgrade -- 23/07/10

Kosovo Serbs gather in Mitrovica in protest following the ICJ's ruling. [Getty Images]

The International Court of Justice's (ICJ) advisory opinion on Kosovo's independence has sent shock waves through the political scene, with opposition parties urging President Boris Tadic and his allies to resign.

The calls stem from the leaders' earlier predictions that a debate on Kosovo's independence at The Hague would result in a victory for Serbia.

In their initial reaction Thursday (July 22nd), they acknowledged that the ICJ's decision was "difficult for Serbia" but would not make Belgrade give up the political fight for Kosovo.

"It is clear that the court did not state its opinion on the right to secession; rather it decided to debate only the technical contents of the declaration of independence," Tadic said in his address to the public, noting that the political struggle will continue at the UN General Assembly this fall.

He added that Serbia would do all it can to keep the peace in the former province, while working to prevent more countries from recognising Kosovo.

"The struggle for a compromise solution will be a long and arduous one, but we will not withdraw from it," Tadic said.

The government called an emergency session Friday to discuss strategy. It has already announced plans to send special envoys to 50 countries in order to press Belgrade's case.

Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) leader and former Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica characterised the ICJ ruling as "extremely unfavourable for Serbia's state interests". The DSS has criticised the way the Serbian government formulated the question it put to the ICJ, saying it failed to consult parliament adequately.

The Liberal Democrats, which are not part of the ruling coalition but often back the government, are demanding an urgent formulation of a new Kosovo policy.

Kosovo Serb representatives reacted with anger. Northern Kosovo Serb leader Milan Ivanovic called the country's diplomacy "a fiasco" and said Tadic's policy had pushed Serbia into a cul-de-sac, down a road that dead-ends.

Speaking to SETimes, University of Belgrade political science professor Predrag Simic noted that the court ruling is not binding, but does carry moral weight. "The ICJ decision knocked one of the strongest arguments from Belgrade's hands," he said.

The decision will influence countries that have not yet recognised Kosovo's independence and will put added international pressure on Belgrade to reach an agreement with Pristina, he said.

He also warned that the court's opinion could have an impact on secessionist movements worldwide.

Ian Bancroft, founder of the organisation Transconflict, which deals with conflicts in the Balkans, told SETimes he had not expected such a clearly presented opinion by the court and that it could influence future events in the Balkans.

"Within Kosovo itself, Kosovo Serbs in the north may now consider it legitimate to unilaterally declare their own independence. Within the region itself, Republika Srpska will invariably seize upon the sentence that the 'declaration of independence did not violate general international law', if not to pursue independence itself, [then] to strengthen its hand in the forthcoming constitutional reform talks," Bancroft said.