No big winner expected in Bulgarian vote

02/07/2009

Up to 60% of voters are expected to hit the polls in Sunday's parliamentary elections. The vote is widely expected to produce the most fragmented legislature in the past 20 years.

(Various sources -- 01/06/09 - 02/07/09)

A passerby glances at campaign posters in Sofia on Tuesday (June 30th). [Getty Images]

Sunday's (July 5th) parliamentary elections in Bulgaria are expected to produce the most splintered government since communism fell two decades ago.

Up to eight of the 18 parties and coalitions registered for the vote are likely to surpass the 4% threshold for entry in the next 240-seat unicameral assembly, but none will get a clear majority, polls show.

The elections will be the first since 1989, in which 31 of the new lawmakers will be elected via majority vote and the remaining 209 by proportional representation.

The opposition centre-right Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) is expected to win the biggest chunk of the proportional vote, just a month after securing the most votes in the European Parliamentary (EP).

Recent polls suggest that the party, established by Sofia Mayor Boyko Borisov in late 2006, is set to take between 26% and 34% of the vote.

Two parties, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and the ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), trail GERB in the polls. The BSP-led Coalition for Bulgaria is expected to finish second with between 17% and 25% of the vote, ahead of the MRF with 9% to 15%, according to polls.

The ultranationalist Ataka (Attack) party and the right-wing Blue Coalition are also expected to win seats. Sunday's vote could also help some alleged criminals escape jail time if elected.

Plamen Galev and Angel Hristov -- commonly referred to as the notorious "Galevi brothers" -- were released from prison on about 25,000-euro bail each last month, as both were registered as candidates for parliament. The two mafia bosses from the southwestern town of Dupnitsa have been accused of organising and controlling a criminal group, which allegedly resorted to intimidation, physical force and extortion.

The constitution provides that all official candidates in an election are given immunity, which they retain until the end of their term.

The elections take place amid deep public discontent with the ruling coalition's failure to tackle widespread corruption and organised crime, which has not only tarnished Bulgaria's image, but has also led to the freezing of hundreds of millions of euros in EU aid.

Alleged vote-buying has marred polls since the first EP elections in Bulgaria in 2007. More than 16% of the votes cast in last month's EP elections were either purchased or otherwise "controlled" votes, according to Bulgarian sociologist Antoniy Galabov.

Up to 60% of the 6.9 million registered voters in the country are likely to hit the polls Sunday.

The elections will be monitored by Bulgarian organisations, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) and the OSCE.