Turks mull Iran election crisis

16/06/2009

Amid protests in Tehran and charges of election rigging, Ankara pursues a cautious policy with its neighbour.

By Ayhan Simsek for Southeast European Times -- 16/06/09

Crowds gathered to protest the re-election of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad after authorities announced he had won a second four-year term in elections on June 12th. [Getty Images]

Turkey is watching developments in neighbouring Iran with growing concern. While media reports have highlighted the unrest and allegations of election fraud, the government is sticking to a finely tuned policy aimed at maintaining sensitive ties.

Speaking on Monday (June 15th), Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu left no doubt as to how the government sees the stakes. "Iran is a neighbouring country whose political stability is extremely important for us," he said.

"Controversy over the election results is Iran's domestic matter. We hope that this debate will end as soon as possible and deep-rooted relations with Turkey and Iran will continue as they have been," the minister added. He refrained from criticising either the use of force by Iranian security forces or the allegations of ballot fraud, instead praising the "dynamic climate" and high turnout during the poll.

Iran and Turkey had difficult relations in the 1980s and 1990s. Turks suspected the neighbouring country of trying to undermine its secular society, while Tehran accused Ankara of stirring up opposition to the Iranian regime, including among ethnic Azeris.

Since 2000, however, ties have been on the mend, with trade volume between the two countries surpassing a record $11 billion last year. Person-to-person relations between Turkey and Iran are significant -- around one million Iranians visit Turkey annually.

Turkish private TV channels are highly popular in Iran, and students there often choose Turkey for their education. At the same time, thousands of regime opponents are thought to reside in Turkey; UNHCR statistics show that around 30,000 Iranians fled to Turkey between 1994 and 2005.

The rise of political Islam in Turkey is also a factor. Although Turkish Muslims are mostly Sunni, there is wide interest in the Shiite model of an Islamic state, and almost all the leading Islamist political figures have nurtured warm ties with Tehran.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul phoned Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to congratulate him on the election outcome, with Turkey becoming one of the first countries in the world to do so.

Meanwhile, Turkish media have been more inclined to support the Iranian protestors and their demands for real democracy in Iran. "Reformers don't give up, despite blood on the streets," the liberal daily Radikal urged in its headline. Reporting from Tehran, Ceyda Karan said Iran was facing its biggest public protest since the 1979 revolution.

Around 170 reformist leaders were under arrest and many foreign journalists were facing restrictions and bans, she wrote.

The conservative paper Bugün, meanwhile, carried reformist candidate Mir Hosein Mousavi's call for his supporters to rally against "lies and dictatorship".

Hürriyet columnist Cüneyt Ülsever, however, argues that election fraud is not sufficient to explain the outcome in Iran. Whatever role the authorities had in skewing the vote, he writes, Ahmadinejad likely has a solid base of support.

"Many observers from outside world predicted that the Iranian people were unhappy with the economic situation, and that they supported reforms and integration into the Western world," he wrote in his column on Monday. "These observers cannot understand the importance of ideology, in particular the Islamist political ideology."

"From now on, nobody can change Ahmadinejad's mind that he has to build a nuclear bomb in order to stand against the United States, Israel and even the EU. He is ready to play a chess game with the West in order to gain more time," the columnist wrote, adding that "very difficult days are ahead for the Middle East".