Opposition favoured in Bulgarian vote

03/06/2009

Sofia Mayor Boyko Borisov's GERB party heads into Sunday's EP vote as the frontrunner, outpacing the Socialists and three other contenders.

(Various sources -- 26/05/09 - 01/06/09)

Campaign posters for the upcoming European Parliament elections dot the southeastern town of Yambol, Bulgaria. [Getty Images]

A right-wing opposition party is poised to win the most votes in Bulgaria's elections for European Parliament (EP). Sunday's (June 7th) vote, in which citizens will pick their 17 representatives in the next 736-seat EU legislature, is widely viewed as a dress rehearsal for the country's July 5th general elections.

If current polling numbers hold, Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) will send five or six representatives to Strasbourg and Brussels.

The party, led by Sofia Mayor Boyko Borisov, won the country's first EP elections in May 2007, with 22% of the vote. This time around, it appears set to nab between 30% and 36%.

In second place is the left-wing Coalition for Bulgaria, led by Prime Minister Sergey Stanishev's Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). Polls show it is likely to receive between 21% and 27% of the vote, entitling it to four or five seats.

Polishing Bulgaria's international image has been a key focus of the campaign. Most of the parties and coalitions have pledged to clean up Bulgaria's reputation, severely tarnished by rampant organised crime and high-level corruption. Suspicion of fraud and irregularities led the EU to suspend hundreds of millions of euros in aid, preventing the public from fully benefiting from Bulgaria's membership in the bloc.

Political tensions have been running high, especially in the wake of controversial changes to election legislation two months ago and numerous attempts to bar the recently formed Blue Coalition from participating. A scandal over links between the Stanishev campaign and the company that will process the election results has fuelled concerns about fairness. There are also worries that vote-buying -- commonplace in the last few years -- will again mar the process, despite tighter penalties.

Turnout is another variable. Polls indicate it will likely range from between 35% and 40% of the country's 6.7 million registered voters. Analysts say that any significant deviations from these projections could have a major impact on the results.

If more voters show up than expected, GERB and the Blue Coalition will likely benefit. But if turnout sinks to around 25%, the minority party Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) could emerge as Bulgaria's main voice in the EP.

Poll results for the MRF, currently a junior partner in the BSP-led governing coalition range from 10% in a Sova Harris survey to 19% in one by MBMD. If turnout predictions hold, it will win two to four seats.

The Blue Coalition is likely to win between 6% to 9% of the vote, and thus one EP seat. The newly-formed bloc includes several right-wing parties, including the Union of Democratic Forces and Democrats for Strong Bulgaria. Meanwhile, the ultranationalist Ataka (Attack) party stands to win between 8% and 11% of the vote, earning it one seat.

Only parties that pass a threshold of 5.88% can enter the EP.