Poll suggests interest in EP elections on rise

29/05/2009

Voter turnout in next week's European Parliamentary elections is likely to be much higher than expected, according to a survey conducted this month.

(Wall Street Journal, Sofia Echo, Cyprus Mail - 29/04/09; AFP, AP, Sofia Echo, Euobserver, EurActiv - 28/05/09; Euronews, Euobserver, EurActiv - 27/05/09; Euronews, European Parliament - 26/05/09)

There's strong interest in the EP elections, according to a poll conducted earlier this month. [Getty Images]

Polling stations open in Britain and the Netherlands on June 4th, when the two countries will become the first EU nations to pick their representatives in the next European Parliament (EP). More than a week before that happens, an Estonian national became the first EU citizen to cast his ballot by voting online, a second after the virtual polling booth's launch Thursday (May 28th) morning.

Four hours later, the number of Estonian voters who had used this method to pick the country's six new EP members (MEPs) exceeded 4,000. However, observers are uncertain whether online voting, which has not been used in previous EP elections, will help boost voter turnout.

An Eurobarometer opinion poll conducted in February and March showed that, on average, only 34% of the 27-nation bloc's 375 million eligible voters intended to take part in the largest trans-national elections ever. Fully 15% said they would definitely not vote.

A new survey published Tuesday showed notable changes in both groups, however. The poll conducted by TNS Opinion earlier this month found that 43% of Europeans would cast ballots. Another 6% of all 27,218 respondents said they would "very probably" vote. The number of people that said they would not vote dropped 10% on average.

The May poll suggests that voter turnout will likely be the highest in Greece and Ireland, both at 66%. Results for Bulgaria (34%) and Romania (30%) suggest that the percentage of voters who will take part in the June 7th elections will be just a little higher than the 29% registered for both in 2007, when they first chose their MEPs. Nearly half of Cypriot voters (48%) are expected to go to the polls in their second EP elections since the Greek-run part of the island joined the EU in 2004.

The percentage of Bulgarians not planning to go to the polls remained unchanged between the two polls at 14% -- one of the highest in the Union. Four-fifths of them did not believe their vote would change anything. Lack of information about the EP and a feeling that they are not sufficiently represented by the MEPs were other reasons cited by Bulgarian respondents who said they would definitely not vote.

Concerned about the potential record low turnout suggested by the Eurobarometer poll, the EP sought to boost voter interest by creating a number of profiles on popular free-access social networking web sites, with lots of information on the legislature and other EU institutions.

With the election campaigns across the bloc described as largely lacklustre, it is unclear whether this approach has spiked voter interest, which has grown from 44% in the February-March poll to 53% currently.

With the elections for the next 736-seat EU legislature being held in the midst of the worst global economic crisis in more than 60 years, unemployment, economic growth and crime remain the issues of biggest concern for European voters.

While the centre-right European People's Party is expected to again be the biggest group in the next EP, there are growing concerns that radical far-right, fringe and single-issue parties could make gains to take up to nearly a quarter of the seats.

"The lower the turnout the more likely fringe parties are likely to do well and that's because those who are really motivated to come out and vote will vote," Jacki Davis, an analyst at the Brussels-based European Policy Centre, said.