Turkey slams brakes on opening border to Armenia

19/05/2009

Turkish ally Azerbaijan wants Yerevan to withdraw its troops from Nagorno-Karabakh before Ankara opens its border with Armenia.

By Ayhan Simsek for Southeast European Times in Ankara -- 19/05/09

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan says Ankara will not open its border with Armenia until Yerevan removes its troops from Nagorno-Karabakh. [Getty Images]

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan disappointed Armenian leaders last week, saying during a trip to Baku that Turkey will not re-open its border with Armenia unless Yerevan withdraws its troops from the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region within Azerbaijan.

Erdogan's message was a clear victory for Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who has long urged Turkey to demand the removal of Armenian forces from the contested area. Those forces have controlled Nagorno-Karabakh since the early 1990s, prompting both Azerbaijan and Turkey to blockade their borders with their landlocked neighbour.

Officials in Yerevan responded immediately to Erdogan's remarks. "Any Turkish attempt to interfere in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem could only harm that process," Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan said.

With that, optimism that had been building for more than a year dissipated. Just weeks ago, Turkey and Armenia had announced their agreement on a "road map" to normalise relations. Erdogan's statements surprised not only Yerevan and Western capitals, but also Turkish foreign policy pundits.

"What awful diplomacy," Referans columnist Cengiz Candar wrote.

"Can Turkey return from this mistake?" he asked."I believe [diplomatic recovery] is possible only if there is an agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the near future."

Erdogan, though, may have thought he had no choice, after experiencing pressure from opposition parties that accused him of betraying an ally and from an infuriated Baku.

After Turkey and Armenia announced their plan to normalise relations, Azerbaijani leaders hinted at the need to renew their gas agreement with Turkey and maybe to revisit the favourable rate that they currently charge -- less than half the price other gas exporters demand of Turkey.

Ankara also needs Azerbaijani support to realise the strategic Nabucco pipeline project, which would reduce European dependence on Russian energy.

It was thus not a surprise that Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz accompanied Erdogan to Baku.

Experts differ on Turkey's chances of escaping its current impasse. Some predict Azerbaijani concerns -- and the need for cheap natural gas -- will continue to influence policy in Ankara. Others, though, stress the long-term benefits of rapprochement with Armenia, for both Turkey and Azerbaijan.

With Georgia shadowed by domestic instability and the threat from Russia, Armenia increasingly looks like a better conduit for Caspian energy supplies. Furthermore, enabling long-blockaded Armenia to prosper might wean it from its economic dependence on its diaspora, which favours a hardline stance on Turkey and Azerbaijan.

The United States has recently increased its efforts to speed a solution in Karabakh and facilitate Turkish-Armenian normalisation.

The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France, and the US - are overseeing negotiations. Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders will meet in St. Petersburg on June 4th in an effort to narrow their differences.