Poll: majority of Serbs support SAA

01/05/2008

Serbia's pro-Western parties could gain a slight edge in the May 11th elections, if they are able to convince swing voters that the pre-membership agreement signed with the EU this week has no effect on Kosovo's status.

(B92, AFP, DPA, Balkan Insight - 30/04/08)

(From left) Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic, Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Bozidar Djelic, Serbian President Boris Tadic and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana attend the EU meeting in Luxembourg on Tuesday (April 29th). [Getty Images]

Serb citizens overwhelmingly support the signing of their country's Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU, according to a poll released on Wednesday (April 30th).

Belgrade-based Strategic Marketing surveyed 550 eligible voters a day before Serbian pro-Western officials sealed the key accord in Luxembourg on Tuesday.

The research agency's head, Srdjan Bogosavljevic, told reporters that 70% of the respondents supported Serbia's EU integration. But that percentage dropped slightly when pollsters reminded them of some parties' opposition to the accord, seen as a major first step on the road to EU membership.

"Still, 66% were in favour of the SAA signing, while 21% were against it," Bogosavljevic told Balkan Insight.

The survey showed that all supporters of the opposition Liberal Democratic Party, 94% of those who support the "For a European Serbia" coalition led by President Boris Tadic and 81% of those supporting a coalition around former President Slobodan Milosevic's Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) backed the accord.

Among nationalists, 45% of those who support Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and its coalition partner, New Serbia (NS), and 41% of those favoring the ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS) backed the SAA.

"When reminded that some parties opposed the signing and that the SAA should be signed only if the EU gives clear guarantees that Kosovo is part of Serbia … the number of DSS-NS supporters in favour of signing falls drastically," Belgrade-based B92 quoted Bogosavljevic as saying. "Radicals supporting the signing … fell to 9%, and DSS-NS support fell from 45% to 39%."

The rift between the Kostunica and Tadic camps over Serbian relations with the EU toppled their coalition government in March, with early parliamentary elections now scheduled for May 11th.

Viewing the SAA as tantamount to Serbian recognition of Kosovo's independence, Kostunica denounced it as "legally null and void". Nationalist parties are threatening to nullify it after the elections.

But analysts say that if the pro-Western parties can convince swing pro-European voters that the SAA has no effect on Kosovo's status, they might carry the elections.

Concluding the accord should reduce the confusion of some voters about Serbia's relations with the EU after Kosovo's independence, AFP quoted Strategic Marketing researcher Svetlana Logar as saying "The biggest confusion was caused by the status quo, and in this way a clarification of the situation is useful" to the pro-Western forces.

A recent poll showed Tadic's Democratic Party closely trailing the SRS.

Bogosavljevic says Tadic's pro-EU coalition could garner at least 2% more votes after signing the EU deal, which could help it secure the majority for a new cabinet.