Turkey to give diplomacy a last chance before Iraq move

15/10/2007

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said at the weekend that a cross-border incursion could be launched "at any time seen necessary". Most diplomats expect intensified negotiations over the next three weeks, rather than immediate military action.

By Ayhan Simsek for Southeast European Times -- 15/10/07

Turkish military trucks carry tanks on a road connecting Turkey's southeastern town of Cizre to Sirnak last week. [Getty Images]

Turkey's government was due on Monday (October 15th) to draft a motion seeking parliament's approval for a military operation aimed at rooting out terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) bases in northern Iraq. The authorities say they have already instructed the military to make preparations.

In weekend comments, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared resolved to take action "at any time seen necessary", despite international calls for restraint.

"We are prepared to pay all costs," Erdogan said. However, diplomatic sources say an immediate incursion is unlikely. Rather, they say, the upcoming weeks will see intensified efforts to address the problem through diplomatic means.

While Turkey's military has been pushing for an incursion, Erdogan's administration has been sceptical. With PKK violence continuing, however, the government is coming under increased public pressure to act.

In what many security analysts say is a concerted effort to draw Turkey into conflict, the PKK has stepped up its campaign of terror. On October 7th, PKK militants armed with guns and explosives killed 13 soldiers in the southeastern province of Sirnak. The attack was one of the most devastating in recent years.

Last week. Erdogan chaired a high-level security meeting called to discuss the PKK threat. "All relevant institutions are given the necessary orders and instructions to make all kinds of legal, economic and political preparations to end the presence of the terror organisation in a neighbouring country, including for a possible cross-border operation," said a statement released after the meeting.

Around 3,000 PKK militants are thought to be holed up in the mountains of northern Iraq, using the area as the springboard for attacks within Turkey. An estimated 150 Turkish soldiers have been killed since January.

The United States has cautioned Turkey that a cross-border action could jeopardise regional stability. But ties between Ankara and Washington are currently strained due to a US Congressional committee's decision to adopt a resolution describing the massacres of Armenians during World War I as a genocide.

On Saturday, US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried and US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy Eric Edelman flew to Ankara, conveying the ongoing efforts by the Bush administration to block the Armenia resolution. They also urged Turkish officials not to launch an incursion into Iraq, saying this would expand instability there.

Erdogan, however, seemed to rebuff these recommendations. "We don't need anyone's advice on northern Iraq and the operation to be carried out there," he told a party rally in Istanbul at the weekend.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan is expected to visit Baghdad in the coming days, both for the preparation of a regional meeting on Iraq and to express Turkey's determination to eliminate the PKK threat.

The interior ministers of Turkey and Iraq also are expected to meet later this month in Kuwait, on the sidelines of a regional security meeting on Iraq.

Iraq's Ambassador to Turkey Sabah Umran said both meetings are important to overcome differences and to avoid a larger crisis in the region.

Umran also warned against a cross border operation, saying this would violate Iraq's sovereign rights. He expressed Iraq's willingness to deepen dialogue with Turkey to eliminate the PKK threat.

A counterterrorism agreement signed by the interior ministers of Turkey and Iraq still awaits ratification by Iraqi lawmakers. Kurdish deputies, however, have already expressed various reservations about the agreement. Before its signature, a key paragraph allowing Turkey limited hot pursuit operations in the border area was struck from the text, due to opposition by the Iraqi Kurdish politicians.

One of the key diplomatic battles is expected to take place in Istanbul early next month. Turkey will host Iraq's neighbouring countries at a regional forum, which US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also is expected to participate.

Erdogan plans to visit Washington early next month, where he is expected to meet with President George W. Bush about the PKK.

The deputy head of Turkey's General Staff, General Ergin Saygun, told reporters on Monday that it is too early to discuss the timing or scale of a possible military operation. The details of parliament's authorisation are crucial, he said.

"If this duty is assigned to us, we will look at the scale on which it will be carried out. It is not possible to say this right now," he said.