Climate of scepticism surrounds BiH vote

02/10/2006

Bosnians are frustrated with their country's political life and doubtful that the current crop of politicians will be able to change it, analysts say.

Analysis by Antonio Prlenda for Southeast European Times in Sarajevo – 02/10/06

Milorad Dodik. [Getty Images]

Bosnians went to the polls Sunday (October 1st) after a markedly tense campaign that saw a rise in nationalistic rhetoric. At the same time, analysts say the vote is unlikely to dispel growing frustration about the country's political life.

"I am sceptical because voters do not have a quality choice," says historian Ivan Lovrenovic. "Our political parties do not have political programmes, but rather operate with demagoguery towards voters. So for the next four years in BiH, I expect the status quo."

Senad Avdic, editor-in-chief of the Sarajevo weekly Slobodna Bosnia, makes a similar assessment. "To change anything in BiH we need different parties on the political scene. But such parties, with new political ideas, are not in sight."

Researchers at the Alumni Centre for Interdisciplinary Studies, an NGO based in Sarajevo, found that politicians during this campaign devoted an average of 1.5% of their stump speeches to concrete issues. The rest of the time went to often-inflammatory rhetoric.

In the most widely reported example, Bosnian Serb politicians -- led by Republika Srpska Prime Minister Milorad Dodik -- threatened to organise an entity referendum on secession from BiH, citing newly-independent Montenegro as a precedent.

Nationalistic rhetoric "definitely does not help or improve the positive image of BiH among the international community," says US diplomat Raffi Gregorian, soon to take office as the chief international mediator for the Brcko District in the northwest.

The growing strength of Dodik and his SNSD party is probably the most significant election trend, say political scientists.

"This would mean ultimate escape of the populist party out of the hardline SDS's shadow," says Nerzuk Curak, a political analyst at the University of Sarajevo. However, he adds, this has not led to a change in BiH political life, since Dodik's party also emphasises nationalistic themes.

Indeed, says Curak, "SNSD achieves success because it relies on an ethno nationalistic matrix."

Analysts will also be keeping an eye on turnout, especially among youth. In the 2002 elections, only 46.8% of voters went to the polls. Exasperation and apathy could drive that figure lower or raise it.

"Apathy among the citizens has reached maximum concentration. There is anger among the majority of population. I anticipate there will be more young people at these elections," Curak said.