With Serbian elections over, the bargaining begins

26/01/2007

Bloggers assess the outcome of the January 21st vote and mull the possible scenario for a new government.

By Balkanblogs for Southeast European Times – 26/01/07

Ruzica Djindjic, widow of assassinated Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic, and Serbian President Boris Tadic salute the crowd at a rally prior to the January 21st parliamentary elections in Serbia. Tadic's Democratic Party (DS) is hoping to form a coalition government with Bozidar Djelic as prime minister. [Getty Images]

As might be expected, bloggers in Serbia had a lot to say about the parliamentary elections and the possibilities of forming a coalition government.

"It seems everybody has won this election. Everybody is celebrating something," writes Reluctant Dragon. "Most seats in parliament, best result ever, not the worst result ever, entering parliament, strong negotiation position, most successful campaign, prettiest smile. Some partied all night at the news of victory for the Radicals while others rejoice at the triumph of the democratic bloc."

"Well, I'm not celebrating. I'm not happy with the results. They are far from what I expected, but I was, sort of, hoping for a miracle."

It's sad that people are dumb enough to buy into Radical rhetoric, strange that Milosevic's Socialists can still make it into parliament, and disappointing that the reformist Democrats and Liberals didn't get more votes, he writes. As for the democratic bloc, touted as Sunday's winner, it's just "a myth".

Belgrade 2.0 feels less gloomy. After all, there were positive as well as negative surprises this time around. Maybe the Liberal Democrats deserved more votes, but at least they're in parliament for the first time. Now Serbia is waiting to see if Kostunica and his DSS, intent on retaining the prime minister's post, will pull off a surprise of their own by joining up with the Radicals.

Probably no, he writes. "That would be political suicide for them."

The election results are "anything but clear," writes James Lyon. "There is a significant chance that a government may not be formed within the 90 day statutory limit, thereby triggering new elections. If a government is formed it may be a minority government with a premier from the DS (possibly Djelic) in coalition with G17+ and LDP, with support from the DSS. It appears that Kostunica will participate in a majority government with DS only if he is named premier, and then only without the participation of the LDP. It is quite probable that the minority parties will go into coalition with whoever forms a government. At present the parties are just beginning to assess their initial positions and post-election results and rumours are running rampant."

Lyon sees one noteworthy change this time around: for the first time, the DS fared poorly in their traditional stronghold of Belgrade, trailing the Radicals.

"Does anyone in the DS realise how serious this is?" he asks.

According to Branislav Kovac, the vote confirmed that the nationalist bloc retains a solid base of support, while those favouring reform and modernisation are still on the fringe.

Despite this, he writes, Europe and the rest of the world will probably view the election as a sign that things in Serbia are getting better. After all, "there were relatively few irregularities … the media were relatively fair, compared to what we endured in the Milosevic era."

Serbs can now look forward to extended haggling between Kostunica and Tadic, with the international community "exerting enormous pressure on them to reach an agreement and avoid new elections", he predicts.

And finally, a bit of nostalgia, courtesy of anegdote.

"At the first secret-ballot elections in Yugoslavia, the story goes, a guy went to his polling station to cast his vote. He received a sealed envelope from the staff. When he inquired if he could open the envelope, to see for whom he would vote, he got a negative response."

After all, it was a secret ballot!