Cyprus problem may block Turkey's EU bid

29/12/2008

Turkey faces a possible "train crash" with the EU next year unless the Cyprus issue is settled before September.

By Ayhan Simsek for Southeast European Times – 29/12/08

Cyprus has been partitioned along ethnic lines since 1974, when Turkish troops invaded in response to an Athens-backed coup aimed at uniting the island with Greece. [Getty Images]

Turkey has expressed unease with the slow progress in peace talks between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots and is calling for an urgent solution to the decades-long problem.

On Thursday (December 18th), Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan met with the UN Secretary General's special adviser for Cyprus, Alexander Downer, who was visiting Ankara. Babacan criticised the Greek Cypriot administration for stalling, asked Downer for a time frame, and urged the UN to take the initiative in areas where the two sides cannot bridge their differences alone.

Ankara has good reason to be concerned, because lack of an agreement could spell big trouble for Turkey's EU bid. The country is under intense pressure to normalize relations with Nicosia. The EU has set a 2009 deadline for Turkey to open its ports and airports to the Greek Cypriots, and Brussels may ask for the suspension of membership talks if this does not happen.

The last major effort to reunite the island fell through in 2004. An internationally backed settlement plan, sponsored by then UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, was negotiated by the Turkish and the Greek Cypriot leaders and brought to separate referendums in both parts of the island. The plan had to be endorsed by both sides in twin referenda. Just ahead of the vote, however, the Greek Cypriot administration turned against the plan, saying unacceptable concessions had been introduced. Greek Cypriots then rejected it by an overwhelming margin, although Turkish Cypriots gave it the green light.

Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat (right) poses with the president of Turkey, Abdullah Gul. [Getty Images]

Cyprus then entered the EU with the government in Nicosia representing the entire island, and the Turkish Cypriots were effectively shut out. Brussels wants Turkey to extend recognition to the Republic of Cyprus, but the idea has been rejected by Turkish leaders, who insist they will only recognise a new partnership state that would be established as a result of peace talks. As an EU member, the Republic of Cyprus has veto power and thus a say over the course of Turkey's bid.

The requirement for Turkey to open its ports to Greek Cypriots is part of a customs union signed with the bloc in 1995. Turkey, however, made such a move conditional on the bloc taking steps to ease the isolation of Turkish Cypriots, whose breakaway republic has no international status. The European Commission (EC) will review the situation before next September and may suggest total suspension of the talks.

Currently, eight out of of 35 accession chapters are already on ice due to the Cyprus dispute. This week, Nicosia blocked opening of another key chapter -- energy -- due to a recent controversy over oil exploration in a disputed sea shelf region.

Diplomats and analysts see a strong risk of crisis. Writing in the daily Referans , senior foreign policy commentator Barçin Yinanç suggests the Greek Cypriot side is playing a game of brinksmanship, calculating that "the more time is consumed, the more concessions it would get from Turkey in 2009".

"This is a miscalculation," Yinanc adds, saying that the more likely result is a freeze on Turkey's EU bid. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's governmet has already lost much of its initial enthusiasm towards the EU, while the bloc is mired in its own domestic problems, she explains.

Demetrios Christofias won the last round of elections in the Greek-run part of Cyprus, campaigning on a pledge to revitalize the peace process. [Getty Images]

In a report titled "Turkey and Europe: The Decisive Year Ahead", the International Crisis Group (ICG) also sounds the alarm.

"Both sides need to recall how much they have to gain from each other and move quickly on several fronts to break out of this downward spiral before one or the other breaks off the negotiations, which could then well prove impossible to start again," the report concludes.

According to the Brussels based think-tank, the EU should reassert firmly and often that Turkey can achieve full membership when it has fulfilled all criteria. The bloc "should lift unofficial blocks on the screening and opening of negotiating chapters," the report says, urging Brussels to exert a greater positive influence.

"The EU should take a greater, even-handed interest in Cyprus settlement talks; send senior officials to visit both community leaders in their offices on the island; underline willingness to give financial support for a solution; and consider delaying oil exploration in contested territorial waters while talks are under way, the report says. At the same time, it adds, Turkey must take responsibility for a solution, sustain momentum for reaching a settlement, and avoid navy intervention designed to halt oil exploration in waters claimed either by Greece or the Republic of Cyprus.

The prestigious think-tank is also urging Turkey's government to recommit to EU-compliant reforms at the highest executive level; immediately approve and begin implementation of the draft National Program for Adopting the EU Body of Law; and re-establish trust and co-operation among parliamentary parties.