Hope on Cyprus reunification prospects remains guarded

27/10/2008

Peace talks have resumed in the most intensive push toward settlement since the failure of the Annan Plan in 2004.

(International Relations and Security Network, AP, Turkish Daily News, CIA Factbook -- 08/10/22, New York Times)

Cypriot President Demitris Christofias (right) shakes hands with Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat after a meeting in May. [Getty Images]

Long before its division, Cyprus was a volatile place. Co-existence among ethnic Greeks and Turks had always been shaky, and when the island gained independence from Britain in 1960, intercommunal violence broke out.

The current crisis dates back to 1974, when a military junta in Athens sought to overthrow the leader of Cyprus, Archbishop Makarios, and unite it with Greece. Citing its role as a guarantor power, Turkey sent in its military. It seized more than a third of the island's territory, including areas populated mainly by Greeks. The resulting breakaway state, known as the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, is recognised only by Ankara.

Periodic efforts to unify the island under UN auspices have failed. In 2004, a plan put forward by Kofi Annan, the UN secretary-general at the time, was defeated by Greek Cypriot voters in a referendum held on both parts of the divided island. The Turkish Cypriots gave it the thumbs up. Cyprus proceeded to enter the EU without a reunification deal. While the entire island is considered part of the bloc, the EU's acquis applies only in areas controlled by the Greek Cypriot administration in Nicosia. Despite their positive response to the Annan Plan, the Turkish Cypriots are shut out.

In retrospect, many observers have faulted Brussels. According to Ronald Fisher, a professor at American University, the EU should have made accession conditional on settling the decades-old dispute. Instead, the Greek side knew it would proceed into the bloc with or without a deal. As an EU member, it has gained additional leverage since it enjoys veto power over bloc decisions relating to Turkey, a candidate for membership.

With hardliner Tassos Papadopoulos at the helm, Cyprus saw little to no progress in the subsequent years. It took elections and a new Greek Cypriot leader before new hopes of a deal could be seriously entertained. Demetris Christofias, from the communist AKEL party, campaigned on a pro-reunification platform and won the presidency in 2008.

A reformer is also in power on the northern side of the island. Mehmet Ali Talat took over in 2005, replacing longtime Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash. Conditions for reaching agreement are as favourable as they have ever been. If the opportunity is not seized, many believe, the window may never open this wide again – or at all.

Christofias and Talat wasted no time in signalling their determination. Their initial move was the March decision to open a crossing point in the capital, Nicosia.

Demetris Christofias, from the communist AKEL party, won the Cypriot presidency this year. [Getty Images]

Their most recent negotiations occurred on September 3rd, September 11th, September 18th and October 8th. Continuing to transmit signals of goodwill, both leaders announced on October 13th the scrapping of annual military exercises.

There is considerable international pressure on the sides to settle their dispute. Impetus came in the form of a visit to promote reunification initiatives by the Elders, a group of 12 Nobel laureates who arrived on October 8th for a two-day visit. Among them were South African Archbishop Desmond Tutu and former US President Jimmy Carter.

Tutu urged the island communities' "two splendid leaders" to exploit "their moment in history". Carter, meanwhile, suggested an agreement was within close reach. Recognising local sensitivity to outside pressure, however, he added that the decision "must be made by the Cypriot people and no one from outside".

Observers such as Professor Joseph Joseph of the University of Cyprus say the older members of both communities -- who remember the "good old days" of peaceful co-existence before 1963 -- want reunification, as do the educated, presumably less biased members of the younger generation. But as a unified island recedes ever further into history, the proportion of younger islanders who never experienced it grows.

While there is arguably growing goodwill on both sides, several crucial issues will be difficult to clear up. Governance of the island, the removal of Turkish forces, property claims by Greek Cypriots who fled their homes and farms and the right of Turkish settlers to stay are problems that will require considerable work to solve and pose the risk of upsetting entrenched interests on either side.

The most intractable issue is governance, with the Greek Cypriots wanting a unitary state and the Turkish Cypriots preferring a two-nation confederation. The willingness of both sides to make concessions will undergo severe testing when somebody inevitably must give up power or wealth, observers point out.

South African cleric Desmond Tutu (front centre) and former US president Jimmy Carter (2nd row, 5th from right) pose for a picture with Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot officials in Nicosia on October 8th. [Getty Images]

A more recent potential complication was the October 17th election of Turkey to a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council, raising fears among Greek Cypriots that Turkey would gain the diplomatic clout to block anything perceived as detrimental to Turkish Cypriot interests.

Christofias complained that "Turkey, which violates international law and the human rights of the Cypriot people, was elected" [to the council]. At the same time, he held out hope the council's permanent members would force Turkey to honour its "obligations" on Cyprus.

The same observers who express guarded optimism concede if this year's talks do not lead to reunification, it may never occur.

Christos Ringas contributed to this reportage.