Election fever heats up in Croatia

10/09/2007

Polls suggest a tight race between the ruling Croatian Democratic Union and the main opposition Social Democrats.

By Natasa Radic for Southeast European Times in Zagreb – 10/09/07

The elections will be scheduled for this fall. [Getty Images]

Croatia will hold parliamentary elections this fall, although the exact date has not yet been set. The vote will be a battle between the two main parties in the country -- the conservative ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and the leftist opposition Social Democrats (SDP).

Polls suggest an exciting and unpredictable race. Currently SDP leads, but by a margin of less than 3%. For either party, any misstep could prove costly. Both parties are intent on attracting more voters while avoiding blunders.

Prime Minister Ivo Sanader says the HDZ will speed up reform processes and beef up the fight against corruption during his next mandate. His main goal for the current mandate -- which began in 2003 -- was to bring Croatia closer to the EU and NATO. The integration process has been Sanader's most visible area of success. Croatia became an official EU candidate country in 2004, and is expected to obtain membership by 2010. The country also expects to join NATO at the Alliance's April 2008 summit.

For Croatia's EU bid to move forward, the country had to meet its remaining obstacles to the UN war crimes tribunal. This was an important early test for Sanader, as the main outstanding issue was the fugitive status of Ante Gotovina, a former general who still enjoyed considerable support. Sanader made it clear that his government was ready to co-operate with the chief UN prosecutor's office. That intention was finalised in 2005 with Gotovina's arrest in the Canary Islands.

The two main candidates for prime minister are current Prime Minister Ivo Sanader and the SDP's Ljubo Jurcic. [SETimes Photo illustration]

Sanader, 54, has also overseen improvements in the country's economic situation, with a growth rate of 4% annually. In addition, his government has implemented judicial reforms and promoted minority rights.

Despite these successes, the prime minister will have to fight hard to keep his job. He faces a strong challenge from SDP candidate Ljubo Jurcic, a financial expert who has drafted the opposition's economy programme

Jurcic, 53, is an economics professor at the University of Zagreb, and served as finance minister from 2000-2003. Chosen by the late party leader Ivica Racan, Juric is viewed as an ambitious but down to earth person who favours concrete plans to boost the economy.

If the SDP wins the elections, Jurcic will become prime minister. SDP leader Zoran Milanovic is also expected to hold a high-ranking post -- whether it be vice-president, foreign minister or parliament speaker.

After the SDP lost the 2003 elections, Racan began to work closely with Jurcic to establish a strategy that would lead the party back to power. At the time, Jurcic was not a member of the party, but an independent supporter. He joined the SDP after Racan's death in April, as the party entered into a new political era. In order to boost his candidacy, Jurcic has drafted a plan to boost the national income and speed up the implementation of priority economy reforms.

The late SDP leader Ivica Racan worked with Ljubo Jurcic on a new strategy for the party. [Getty Images]

The SDP plan aims to raise industrial growth from the current 4% to 8% in the first year of its mandate. This would drive other sectors up, increasing the GDP to 6% after 12 months. Along with growth in domestic production, Juric says, will come higher salaries, pensions and dividends.

The party is also promising to finance the development of infrastructure in other parts of Croatia, thereby stimulating people to come work in smaller towns. Adjustments would also be made to the tax system, with new taxes imposed on assets and capital gains.

In addition to Sanader and Jurcic, two additional candidates are running for prime minister. Radimir Cacic from the centre left Croatian People's Party (HNS) launched his candidacy earlier this year, introducing door-to-door campaigning to the country. Cacic wanted to unite the political left and centre, but his proposal was not accepted by the party's "big brother" to the left of the political spectrum, the SDP. They wanted to have their own candidate, and to be free of coalitions before the elections. To the right, the nationalist Croatian Party of Rights (HSP) leader Anto Djapic has thrown his hat into the ring as well.

Croatian President Stipe Mesic will not back any candidate, saying his political position should be unbiased and neutral.

While the public still awaits a definitive decision on the election date, the specifics of the voting system are already well known. There are ten electoral units in Croatia, based on geography and population. In each unit, 14 candidates are elected on the basis of the proportional electoral system. The election threshold is 5%. The parliament will have eight candidates that represent national minorities.

Regardless of the outcome, the elections will be monitored closely by the international community. Croatia, on the brink of joining two major Euro-Atlantic bodies, is expected to hold elections that are free and fair.