Serbian elections crucial for country's EU perspective

04/12/2006

The choice facing Serbia as it prepares for elections on January 21st is a stark one. With ultranationalists led by a Hague indictee likely to win the largest single bloc of votes, the oft-quarreling democratic parties are under pressure to overcome their differences.

By Igor Jovanovic for Southeast European Times in Belgrade – 04/12/06

SRS leader Vojislav Seselj is facing trial at The Hague. His party stands to win more than 34% of the votes in January, according to a recent poll. [Getty Images]

The upcoming parliamentary elections in Serbia, scheduled for January 21st, could turn out to be crucial for the country's European future. Public opinion polls give the parties of the democratic bloc only a slight advantage among voters against the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) and the Socialist Party of Serbia, which represent the political legacy of former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic.

Six years after the ouster of Milosevic, who died of a heart attack in a Hague tribunal prison cell on March 11th, the democratic parties find themselves facing three major challenges. The status of Kosovo, the southern Serbian province that has been under UN administration since 1999, will most likely be resolved after the elections. After that, if a new democratic government is in power, it will have to deliver former Bosnian Serb General Ratko Mladic, indicted for genocide in Bosnia and Herzegovina, to The Hague tribunal. At the same time, the new government will have to make a major effort to resume negotiations on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU. These were interrupted in May of this year, due to the failure to extradite Mladic.

According to a recent opinion poll by the Medium Gallup agency, the largest bloc of seats in the new parliament is likely to be won by the far-right SRS, whose leader Vojislav Seselj is awaiting trial at The Hague. The poll suggests the Radicals would win 34.9% of votes, giving them as many as 102 of the 250 seats in parliament.

"I expect the victory of the democratic forces, the victory of a policy that is defined by one goal -- membership in the EU and improvement of the citizens' living standards," Serbian President Boris Tadic said of the elections. [Getty Images]

Second in popularity is Serbian President Boris Tadic's Democratic Party, with about 22.9% of the vote. In third place is Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia, with 13.9%. The Socialists, who will be selecting their first party president since Milosevic at a congress early this month, have 5.6%. Former Finance Minister Mladjan Dinkic's G17 Plus has about 5.2%. Various parties representing ethnic minorities are also likely to cross the parliamentary threshold.

With this balance of power, the democratic parties could form a government only if they arrange a coalition of all the representatives that enter the new parliament, other than those from the Radical and Socialist parties. In order to strengthen their positions, the Democrats have joined a coalition with the regional Bosniak party in Serbia, the Sandzak Democratic Party. Meanwhile, the DPS has forged an alliance with several regional parties from central Serbia.

Because these elections are potentially so important, the international community has moved to provide support to the democratic parties. Martti Ahtisaari, the UN special envoy for the status of Kosovo, postponed the announcement of a status resolution until after the vote is held. Many Western analysts and media sources have said Ahtisaari is likely to propose some sort of conditional independence for Kosovo. This could wreak political havoc within Serbia; hence Ahtisaari's decision to put off revealing his blueprint for the future.

The EU has also been sending signals. The Belgrade-based news agency Tanjug reported the details of an informal document drafted by the Finnish EU presidency, stating that over the coming days Serbian citizens will be sent a clear message regarding their European prospects.

Serbia was invited to join NATO's Partnership for Peace programme at the Riga summit last week. [Getty Images]

The document foresees the intensification of meetings between political and economic leaders, acceleration of the talks on visa benefits, and the beginning of the realisation of financial programs from the EU pre-accession funds -- all part of a bid to strengthen relations between the EU and Belgrade.

In the most recent development, NATO concluded its summit in Riga with an invitation to Serbia -- along with its former state union partner Montenegro, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina -- to join the Partnership for Peace, a first step towards eventual membership in the Alliance. For years, membership in PfP had been explicitly linked to co-operation with The Hague tribunal, and in particular to the capture and extradition of Mladic. The dramatic change in policy -- which shocked chief UN prosecutor Carla del Ponte -- sends a strong message that the West is concerned about sustaining the democratic process in Serbia. Reformist politicians have repeatedly cautioned that the political future will be bleak if they cannot deliver anything but bad news on the foreign policy front. The international community appears to have heeded this warning.

When he announced the elections, Tadic said that on January 21st Serbia will be choosing between a European future and a return to the not so distant "dark past" of the Milosevic era. "I expect the victory of the democratic forces, the victory of a policy that is defined by one goal – membership in the EU and improvement of the citizens' living standards," he said. In less than two months, Serbian voters will show whether or not he was right. And the world will be watching.