Tadic or Nikolic -- Europe or Isolation?

24/06/2004

Serbia's presidential runoff on Sunday (27 June) is the country's most important political event since the toppling of the Milosevic regime on 5 October 2000.

By Dusan Kosanovic for Southeast European Times in Belgrade - 24/06/04

A supporter of Boris Tadic holds flags during his pre-election rally in Belgrade on Wednesday (23 June). Tadic faces Tomislav Nikolic in the presidential run-off Sunday. [AFP]

Serbia has been without a head of state since 2002, when Milan Milutinovic's term as president expired. After three presidential polls failed due to low voter turnout, lawmakers amended the election legislation, eliminating the 50 per cent threshold. There is no doubt now that Serbia will get a new president on Sunday (27 June). The choice is between the pro-European bloc's candidate, Boris Tadic, and ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic.

EU support is a key asset to Tadic. During a visit to Brussels earlier this week, he met with European leaders. "The EU is Serbia's road and fate," EU Commissioner Chris Patten said following his session with Tadic. EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, meanwhile, said Europe hopes Serbia would join as soon as possible, and that the Union is ready to take any steps to speed up the process.

"Serbia needs a president who is a good friend of the EU and who will be a friend among friends, because the future president will dramatically increase Serbia's chances to become an EU member," Solana said.

According to Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Draskovic, European officials are deeply concerned about the possible outcome of Sunday's election. "No one in Europe wants Serbia-Montenegro to remain outside Euro-Atlantic integration. They don't want that empty hole between Slovenia and Thessaloniki, Greece. It is in Europe's interest that the hole gets filled with a European quality of life," says Draskovic.

Public opinion researchers agree that the margin of victory will be slim, and that voter turnout will be decisive. The greater the turnout, the better will be Tadic's chances to win, pollsters say. Over 3 million people voted in the first round, but that figure is expected to drop in the runoff. Nikolic led by 100,000 during the first round, but all the other candidates have since pledged their support to Tadic, including business tycoon Bogoljub Karic.

The intense election campaign culminated Wednesday as the candidates met in a debate broadcast on state television, which resulted in record ratings. While Tadic kept to his characteristic messages, underlining the necessity of integration, Nikolic strove to overcome his image as an extremist, presenting himself instead as an advocate of regional disarmament -- he also borrowed Karic's economic rhetoric.

A joint poll conducted by the daily Politika and the Faktor Plus Agency projects that Tadic will win 53.6 per cent of the vote, while Nikolic would get 46.4 per cent. In past races, however, the ultranationalists have surprised pollsters, and Nikolic has the advantage of a disciplined constituency. NGOs are running campaigns aimed at boosting turnout. "If you stay at home, you will stay there for the next ten years -- since you won't be able to go anywhere," warns one slogan.

Analysts have sketched the outcome of both election scenarios this way: if Nikolic were to win, Serbia would send a negative message to the EU, the government would be further destabilised, the new constitution would become harder to adopt, relations with Montenegro would deteriorate and foreign investments would slump. A Tadic victory would probably result in cohabitation with the current government, though probably not past late 2004. The adoption of a new constitution would be attempted. At some point, another round of extraordinary parliamentary elections would ensue.