Kosovo and Serbia -- what happens next?

17/12/2007

With the troika-led talks over, the UN Security Council will now meet and try to reach a decision on Kosovo's status. Pristina, meanwhile, says it will unilaterally declare independence.

By Igor Jovanovic and Blerta Foniqi-Kabashi for Southeast European Times in Belgrade and Pristina – 17/12/07

On Wednesday (December 12th), Kosovo President Fatmir Sejdiu said independence for the province would occur within days. "We're only a few days away from Kosovo's final act of independence, which will receive international blessing and the blessing of our friends, the US, EU, and other democratic countries," he said.

Slovenia -- which will assume the rotating EU presidency on January 1st -- drafted a blueprint for Kosovo's independence and Europe's reaction to it. Reports Wednesday said Kosovo is expected to declare itself an independent state in the first two months of 2008, and will be recognised by Britain, France, Italy and Germany within 48 hours, according to the draft proposal.

The United States is expected to announce its formal recognition of the province shortly afterwards, to be followed immediately by Switzerland, Iceland and Norway and then by a group of countries -- including Turkey, Macedonia, Albania Montenegro, Croatia and Slovenia.

Additionally, Slovenia wants the EU foreign ministers to issue a statement immediately after Kosovo's declaration of independence to open the way for the deployment of an EU administrative, judicial and police mission in the summer.

Serbian authorities have said they will react fiercely if Kosovo proclaims independence without the UN Security Council's permission. However, the government dismissed the possibility of the army intervening in Kosovo, as that would lead to clashes with some 16,000 KFOR soldiers stationed in the province.

"Serbia knows what it is like to be at war with the whole world. That is why that option is out of the question," Serbian Defense Minister Dragan Sutanovac said.

Certain analysts in Belgrade, however, warn that Serbian officials would face the difficult task of protecting its compatriots if the Serbs living in enclaves in Kosovo become victims of Albanian violence.

Belgrade -- and Security Council member Russia -- are insisting that negotiations continue until a compromise solution is found.

Earlier this week, Serbian President Boris Tadic said the country would launch an initiative to have the Security Council request an opinion of the International Court of Justice on whether Kosovo's independence would be legal or not.

"If such an act occurs, it is our job to annul such a decision and launch all international legal processes before courts and international legal institutions for the annulment of the act," Tadic said. If any country accepts the province's independence, Serbia "will launch processes against the governments of those countries before their own legal institutions," he added.

Two weeks ago, Serbia's ministries adopted action plans that will be implemented if Kosovo declares independence. Those plans were designated a state secret and are not available to the public.

Analysts believe that Belgrade could impose a trade embargo on Kosovo and halt electricity deliveries to the province. Belgrade could also review its political and economic links with the countries that recognize Kosovo's independence, and even cut diplomatic relations with some.

However, in case of an economic blockade of Kosovo, it is almost certain that the Serb enclaves in central and southern Kosovo, in which two-thirds of the remaining Kosovo Serbs live, will be isolated. This could easily lead to the Serbs' exodus toward the north of the province, which is tightly linked with Serbia proper.