SETimes.comTime ripe for a solution to Macedonia name dispute
03/11/2008
Will Matthew Nimetz's latest idea -- Republic of Northern Macedonia -- go the way of its predecessors?
By Zoran Nikolovski for Southeast European Times in Skopje – 03/11/08
With a NATO membership at stake, a 17-year long dispute over the name "Macedonia" has come to a head in the past months. While the level of rancor has not diminished, there are signals that the dispute may be entering its final stages.
International anxiety is one reason. If left unresolved, the quarrel has the potential to disrupt the process of integration. Greece has already exercised its veto power with regards to Macedonia's NATO accession, and could be expected to do the same with regard to EU membership. At the same time, a failure to integrate could have dire consequences for the Republic of Macedonia, threatening its economic well-being and political stability. The peace brought by the 2001 Ohrid Accord remains fragile, as do the underpinnings of civil society.
The UN Secretary-General's Special Representative for the name issue, Matthew Nimetz, has floated proposal after proposal. He says he is armed with patience and that deadlines mean nothing in such an important dispute. Nevertheless, the United States, and even the normally reserved EU, have been suggesting that the time for a solution is now.
Both sides have mounted major diplomatic offensives. Greece can boast success in recent weeks, as two countries -- Mexico and Panama -- have reversed their earlier decision to call the Republic of Macedonia by its constitutional name. The countries will now use "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia".
However, Skopje can take heart in the fact that more than 115 nations around the world -- including China, Russia and the United States -- have agreed to use the constitutional name.
Popular opinion in the two countries has not been conducive to reaching a settlement. A poll commissioned by the Greek newspaper Kathimerini and the broadcaster Skai found that 53% of Hellenes oppose Nimetz's latest proposal, under which the neighbouring country would use "Republic of Northern Macedonia" internationally and "Macedonia" at home, while the language would be called "Macedonian".
Many Greeks say they cannot countenance a solution that includes the term "Macedonia" in any form. Use of the name, they argue, not only impinges on Greece's history but opens the door for territorial claims.
By contrast, citizens of Macedonia see the name as crucial to their sense of national identity. Responding to popular anger over the NATO membership veto, Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski's administration has sought to play hardball, raising the issue of wartime explusions from Northern Greece and pleading the cause of the "ethnic Macedonian" minority there.
A poll conducted by the Research and Policymaking Centre in Skopje immediately after the NATO summit in Bucharest this spring found that 60% of Macedonians oppose changing the country's name in exchange for membership in the Alliance. At the same time, 78% said they believe negotiations with Greece should continue.
By and large, Macedonians responded to the NATO debacle with an outpouring of nationalist sentiment rather than a willingness to concede. Seeking to strengthen his mandate, Gruevski called early elections and won them handily. He continues to take a tough line on the issue, pledging that any name change must be put before voters in a referendum. At least in the present requirement, such a requirement would almost certainly doom any compromise proposal.
The opposition Social Democrats, however, are waiting to capitalize on any major shift in public opinion. They warn of the dangers Macedonia faces as a result of international isolation. President Branko Crvenkovski, the opposition party's former and likely future leader, also takes a pro-diplomacy line.
In Greece, Prime Minister Karamanlis has a strong mandate and a solid majority in parliament. The opposition party, PASOK, has given him its support on the name issue. Although a compromise might displease many in the country, Karamanlis probably has the political strength needed to push a deal through. So far, Athens has sent out positive signals regarding the latest Nimetz proposal. In Skopje, the response has been sceptical.
Opinion elsewhere in the Balkans is generally, though not overwhelmingly, favorable towards the Macedonian side. The Gallup polling organisation found that a majority of citizens in Albania (65%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (59%), Kosovo (60%), and Serbia (55%) support use of the name "Macedonia" even if Greece objects. Montenegrins, however, disagreed, with only 47% indicating support.
In the end, the biggest hurdle to a solution may simply be the fabled Balkan quality of stubbornness. More than a few on both sides are prepared to soldier along under the status quo, even as the internationals fret and the potential consequences loom. National pride is at stake on both sides, and no leader wants to be seen as the one who caved in. While there are many logical reasons to expect a breakthrough, success will depend on more than logic. Sufficient political will and ingenuity are also required.